An Adaptation of the Bass New Product Diffusion Model for Multiple Purchases of Capital Items

Leigh, L. and Yorke-Smith, N. An Adaptation of the Bass New Product Diffusion Model for Multiple Purchases of Capital Items. Proceedings of 10th International Marketing Trends Conference, Paris, France, January 2011.

Abstract: This paper offers an adaptation of the Bass new product diffusion model to deal with the limitation of the classical model to situations in which each customer only ever purchases a single item. While this assumption is often reasonable in relation to consumer durables, it is rarely warranted for capital items used by businesses. The authors exhibit the case of a start-up technology company; this company has developed a specialized instrument that increases the efficiency of drug evaluations in pharmaceutical laboratories. The paper proposes a technique for incorporating into the Bass model multiple 'follow-on' sales subsequent to satisfactory evaluation of an initial 'trial' purchase. The paper also suggests techniques for estimating and updating the parameters of the model for use in sales forecasting using a proposed research questionnaire.

Some minor corrections are made in this postprint.

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